As the DailyKos noted two years ago, the infamous Christina Romer January 2009 analysis of the Stimulus’ effects, was not a clear prediction as to how the job market will look at this time. Instead, it was a “preliminary analysis of the jobs effects of some of the prototypical recovery packages being discussed.” And to be fair to the President, he was asking for a $1 trillion stimulus, but at the end it was approximately 20% smaller. But then again, the previous Congress passed many Jobs Bills totaling more funds than what Obama had asked at the time the analysis was published.
The above details aside, the report wrote that if the Stimulus will pass, the economy will employ 137,550,000 people at the close of 2010. Six months later however, and the Nonfarm Job Market (this means Private Sector plus Government jobs, excluding Farm Jobs) employs 131,017,000 people. This is short by 6,533,000 of the Romer/Obama analysis.
Other notable statistics of that analysis compared to the current job market:
v If the Stimuluswill not pass, the report projected, the economy will employ 133.87 million people at the end of 2010. Six months later, we are short 2.85 million jobs of that figure.
v The economy employs now 364,000 less people than April 2009 – the month that Stimulus funds started rolling out.
v The Romer report hoped that the Unemployment Rate will be just above 5% at the end of 2012. Today Friday however, President Obama’s Economic Advisor Austan Goolsbee expects the Unemployment Rate to be 8.2% at the close of 2012.